Is There Hope for a Hong Kong Revolution?

Hong Kong may seem like an unlikely place for a revolution. In this relatively affluent and privileged city, young people might be expected to be more concerned with making money than with protesting in the streets. Yet day after day, demonstrators in Hong Kong risk injury and death confronting security forces backed by the massive power of the Chinese government.

Among their demands are democratic elections for the city’s Legislative Council and chief executive. Their desire for fundamental change has mounted, and they increasingly see their own lives as lacking meaning unless circumstances change.

Historians have long argued that revolutions are built not on deep misery but on rising expectations. Since the 18th century, societies, clubs and associations of intellectuals have been seedbeds of radical change in countries throughout the world. They provided leadership for the French Revolution in 1789, the European revolutions of 1848 and the Russian Revolution of 1905.

The situation in Hong Kong is revolutionary, too, although the history of past revolutions may not provide much hope of immediate change.

A view of the Hungarian Revolution before the Soviet tanks rolled in. Gabor B. Racz/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

A look at Hungary

The most compelling parallel to Hong Kong may be the Hungarian Revolution of 1956, which attempted to wrest power from a communist regime. It, too, began with a student uprising in favor of democratic elections.

Within a few days, the communist government resigned and a reformist administration was formed under Imre Nagy, who allowed noncommunists to enter political office. This went too far for communist leaders in the Soviet Union. The USSR invaded Hungary, overthrew Nagy’s regime and secretly put him to death.

As with the Hong Kong protests today, the United States gave little official support to the Hungarian Revolution and was unwilling to offer material assistance. Keeping peace in Europe was of vital importance to U.S. policy in 1956, just as good relations with China are now central.

The Hungarian example may provide little solace to the Hong Kong protesters – except, perhaps, if they consider its long-term consequences.

In October 1989, with Soviet influence in Eastern Europe collapsing, the democratic Republic of Hungary was declared on the 33rd anniversary of the 1956 revolution. Those who died during that revolution are now remembered as martyrs.

A contemporary print depicting the battle at the Ta-ping gate at Nanking, part of China’s Revolution of 1911. T. Miyano, Wellcome Library/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

In China’s own history

Chinese history supplies a more heartening example of a successful student-led uprising: the Revolution of 1911. It was fomented by young men returning from study abroad, who formed political societies to “revive” their country, often disguised as literary discussion groups.

The 1911 Revolution mobilized networks of intellectuals and students throughout China, but it also drew on other social groups: military officers, merchants, coal miners and farmers. The revolution erupted in many parts of China simultaneously and had various outcomes, from utter failure, to the massacre of ethnic Manchus to declarations of Mongol and Tibetan independence. A provisional government emerged by the end of the year in Nanjing.

The Hong Kong protests, however, are too limited in geographical scope and social support to repeat the success of the 1911 revolutionaries.

The subsequent Chinese revolution in 1949, like the 1917 Russian Revolution, followed Leninist theory and was spearheaded by professional party insiders, not by intellectuals. The communists regarded mass protests as potentially counter-revolutionary and as threats to the new order.

On June 5, 1989, a Chinese man stood alone to block a line of tanks in Tiananmen Square. AP Photo/Jeff Widener

What’s next?

The young protestors in Hong Kong seek to avoid the fate of the student demonstrators of Tiananmen Square in spring 1989. Three decades ago, hundreds, perhaps thousands, of protesters were massacred after the communist government invoked martial law. The pro-democracy agenda of the Tiananmen protesters was vague, and they relied on reformers within the party apparatus, who finally betrayed them.

The Hong Kong crowds are focused on specific changes and lack illusions about the party. They will go down fighting desperately, not standing with faint hope in front of tanks. That may give pause to the forces of repression. As the Communist Party of China and any student of history knows, martyrs are the fuel of future revolutions.

Paul Monod is a Professor of History at Middlebury College

THIS ARTICLE WAS ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED ON THE CONVERSATION

War and Climate Change in Yemen

 As climate change continues to take its toll globally, Yemen has begun to dramatically feel its effects. The water shortages have significantly aggravated the scope of the conflict, and vice versa. 

Locals Fill Bottles from Public Water Supply: Sana’a, Yemen. Water.alternatives. CC BY-NC 2.0$

Water scarcity in Yemen has become dire; 50% of Yemenis, nearly 15 million individuals, lack access to clean water, and experts have reported that the capital, Sana’a, runs the risk of consuming its limited water supply as soon as 2023. In 2017, a study noted the diminishment of the water table in Yemen by 6-7 meters per year. The rapidly-depleting water supply, coupled with limited access to available water represent just one of the many systemic issues facing Yemen that bear the potential to worsen significantly as a result of global climate change. As violence continues to escalate and humanitarian access to the crisis diminishes, Yemen increasingly lacks the tools it desperately needs to navigate a widespread cholera epidemic, as well as near-famine conditions for millions of its citizens. 

Conflict in Yemen broke out in 2014 following a counterinsurgency launched against the government of Yemen by Houthi rebels. The civil war quickly became a proxy war between Saudi Arabia, who is leading a coalition in support of the established Yemeni government, and Iran, sponsoring the Houthis. The Saudi government has carried out frequent airstrikes against Houthi-held territory, which includes Sana’a, and has instigated a blockade, driving millions of Yemenis to the edge of famine. Climate change and conflict have been mutually-reinforcing in their exacerbation of the state of water scarcity, famine, and disease in Yemen. Diminished water supplies have intensified the stakes of factional conflicts, especially in Sana’a, while Saudi opposition to Houthi insurgency has, at least temporarily, cut short past collaboration between the two states to introduce Saudi water desalination technology into Yemeni infrastructure.

Compounding the issue, the average temperature in Yemen is predicted to rise 3.3°C by 2060. Moreover, Yemen has been in the throes of a cholera epidemic that has lasted nearly four years. Without adequate access to humanitarian healthcare resources or a sound healthcare infrastructure, and with the incubation effects that occur as global temperatures rise, disease outbreaks such as the current cholera epidemic stand only to increase, both in frequency and intensity. 

Furthermore, as the conflict has rendered avenues for foreign aid from other nations and NGOs sporadic and inefficient, other groups with the aim of influencing Yemen’s population have begun to intervene. More specifically, the vacuum in humanitarian intervention has created openings for al-Qaeda recruitment among desperate members of the population, as the arm of al-Qaeda operating on the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) has performed services such as providing water and repairing wells. Given that the ultimate end of AQAP is recruitment, Yemeni affiliation with al-Qaeda will only further cycles of violence within Yemen and throughout the Middle East. Growing influence of AQAP has long-term destabilizing effects that will work against efforts to re-stabilize and recentralizes Yemen in the future. 

Future efforts to stabilize Yemen will be fraught by both conflict and climate change, especially given the mutually-reinforcing feedback loop that has arisen between the two. Climate conditions have exacerbated the violence and displacement, and in turn the ongoing war has destroyed infrastructure crucial to dealing with emergencies in healthcare, access to water, and famine that have come about, in large part, due to changing climate conditions. Currently there are over 300,000 internally displaced persons, and experts contend that not only violence, but also the cholera epidemic and diminishing water and food supply have produced the massive amount of migration within Yemen. There has been hope, however, regarding the precedent water scarcity maintains for bringing adversaries to the conference table. Though, given the scope of the war and the state of human rights in Yemen, conflict and climate conditions may very well get worse before they get better.

HALLIE GRIFFITHS is an undergraduate at the University of Virginia studying Foreign Affairs and Spanish. After graduation, she hopes to apply her passion for travel and social action toward a career in intelligence and policy analysis. Outside of the classroom, she can be found, quite literally, outside: backpacking, rock climbing, or skiing with her friends.

Chile Protests Escalate as Widespread Dissatisfaction Shakes Foundations of Country’s Economic Success Story

Chile’s capital city Santiago appears dynamic and bustling, complete with gleaming skyscrapers and a modern metro network. Against the backdrop of the snow-topped Andes mountains, the Costanera Tower – South America’s tallest building – symbolises the country’s open neoliberal economy and mass consumption society. 

But protests have rocked the country, challenging this image of stability and prosperity.

Following a government proposal to increase the price of metro tickets, students began to dodge metro fares in protest on October 14, jumping the turnstiles en masse and setting metro stations on fire. The protests soon spread within Santiago and to other Chilean cities, leading President Sebastian Piñera to declare a state of emergency and daily curfews on October 18. This legislation, which dates from the dictatorship era of the 1970s and 80s, allows the military to patrol the streets. 

But the move has led to an escalation of the protests, as thousands of Chileans disobeyed the curfews by marching peacefully against government policy and violent repression on a daily basis, calling for Piñera to resign.

The images of soldiers and tanks on the streets, dispersing protesters with water cannon, tear gas, and physical violence, recall the images of military repression during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet between 1973 and 1990. The economic and ideological legacies of the Pinochet era as well as the nature of Chile’s transition to democracy are key to understanding the reasons for the protests. The anger of those on the streets is as much a reflection of the country’s high inequality as it is of these unresolved legacies.

Much of the media coverage of the protests has focused on the spectacle of looting, vandalism, and soldiers beating the protesters. Since the protests started, 18 people have died and there have been 3,000 arrests. But there are wider causes behind these events. The protests emerged in the middle of growing dissatisfaction with high levels of inequality and a high cost of living

Income inequality has not improved in Chile since the days of the military dictatorship. World Inequality Database

On the surface, Chile looks like an economic and political success story, as the country’s GDP growth has outpaced that of Latin America as a whole in recent years, but many Chileans are struggling. The metro fares have come to symbolise what they feel is the unjust distribution of income and social spending. 

Legacy of Pinochet era

Like the state of emergency, Chile’s social and economic policies also date from the dictatorship. Neoliberal reforms were introduced in the mid-1970s by Pinochet and his team of American-trained economists, known as the “Chicago Boys”. The reforms took place in the context of violent repression. Official investigations showed that 3,065 people were murdered by state agents during the dictatorship, 40,000 tortured, and hundreds of thousands forced into exile.

The 1970s reforms included the elimination of subsidies, welfare reform, and the privatisation of state-owned companies, the health sector, education and pensions. Pinochet’s reforms led to high levels of unemployment, declining real wages, and expensive social services, such as education. The impact is clear today in education, characterised by low levels of public spending and highly unequal access to good-quality schools and universities. Between 2011 and 2013 students organised mass demonstrations against Chile’s education policies, and dissatisfaction remains.

Chile turned from a military to a civilian government in 1990, following the 1988 referendum in which Pinochet was defeated. But due to the nature of the transition, social and economic policies changed very little. Pinochet negotiated his departure in such a way that the armed forces kept control of the political process, including his own appointment as a lifelong senator. The 1980 military constitution – which is still in place today – has allowed Piñera to declare the controversial state of emergency to deal with the protests. Although some of the military control structures have been dismantled since Pinochet’s death in 2006, the civilian governments on the right and the left have had a limited appetite to address the country’s inequalities.

Anger on the streets of Santiago. Fernando Bizerra Jr/EPA

In response to the protests, on October 22 Piñera suspended the planned fare increases and announced a spending package of reforms to address the protestors’ concerns. The fact that Chileans continue to protest around the country shows that many people feel these measures are too little, too late. 

Given the long historical roots of the inequalities, it’s unlikely that one-off extra spending can address the country’s structural problems. Even if the government’s intention has been to de-escalate the situation, its hardline response to the protests signals growing polarisation rather than a quick resolution to the issues.

Marieke Riethof is a Senior Lecturer in Latin American Politics, University of Liverpool

THIS ARTICLE WAS ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED ON THE CONVERSATION

In Dr Seuss’ Children’s Books, a Commitment to Social Justice That Remains Relevant Today

On February 18, Random House announced the discovery of What Pet Should I Get?, an unpublished – and heretofore unseen – picture book by Dr Seuss. The announcement came 10 days after the same publisher revealed that it would publish Harper Lee’s “discovered” manuscript for Go Set a Watchman in the summer of 2015.

In What Pet Should I Get? – released this week – the very same siblings who first appeared in One Fish Two Fish Red Fish Blue Fish now struggle with the question of what pet they should choose. 

While the siblings in What Pet Should I Get? may not be as familiar as Scout and Jem Finch, Dr Seuss’ new book is the latest addition to a body of work that remains just as committed to social justice as Harper Lee’s famous novels. 

From Flit to Horton Hears a Who!

Such matters were not always the chief focus of Theodor Geisel (Dr Seuss’ real name).

In the late 1930s, using the pen name Dr Seuss, Geisel created cockamamie ad campaigns for Flit bug spray. During the early years of World War II, he contributed notoriously vicious caricatures of the people and leaders of Axis nations for the Popular Front tabloid PM. After joining famous Hollywood director Frank Capra’s Army Signal Corps unit in 1943, he co-created propaganda films under Capra’s tutelage. 

However in the years after the war, Dr Seuss’ art underwent a radical thematic shift. With a flood of eager baby boomer readers, he decided he wanted to speak to the perspective of children. 

A Flit advertisement proof from the 1930s, drawn by Dr Seuss. Special Collection & Archives, UC San Diego Library

A Flit advertisement proof from the 1930s, drawn by Dr Seuss. Special Collection & Archives, UC San Diego Library

The racist caricatures of Japanese civilians and soldiers that Dr Seuss published in PM had drawn on the social prejudice and aggression that Geisel believed lay at the heart of adult humor. So Geisel entrusted Dr Seuss’ postwar art to the belief that children possessed a sense of fairness and justice that could transform their parents’ world. 

Geisel described his 1954 children’s book Horton Hears a Who!, in part, as an apology to the Japanese people his propaganda had demeaned during the war. In subsequent children’s books, he began addressing the major issues of the 20th century: civil rights in The Sneetches (1961), environmental protection in The Lorax (1971) and the nuclear arms race in The Butter Battle Book (1984). 

The zany wisdom of Dr Seuss

In 1960, Geisel spelled out the stakes of his art: 

In these days of tension and confusion, writers are beginning to realize that Books for Children have a greater potential for good, or evil, than any other form of literature on earth. 

Like To Kill a Mockingbird, One Fish Two Fish Red Fish Blue Fish was published in 1960. And like Mockingbird, the conflicts, tensions and fears of that era are highlighted (albeit indirectly). 

One Fish Two Fish Red Fish Blue Fish follows a brother and sister who encounter a series of increasingly fantastic creatures. Nonsensical skits and slapstick gags disrupt the children’s need to decide on a definitive taxonomy – numbers, colors, oppositions, emotional dispositions – for these animals. 

A question nearly all children face. Random House

A question nearly all children face. Random House

The array of sorting mechanisms communicates the siblings’ attraction to different, ever-stranger living things. The book introduces more than a dozen creatures and each is outlandishly distinctive. Most importantly, the children value all of them because of their uniqueness.

Overall, this tale of inclusivity cultivated an appetite for diversity and a delight for change. It rejected the stereotypical ways of regarding persons and things through strict categorization.

Dr Seuss engaged 1960s unrest more directly in Green Eggs and Ham, also published in 1960. Using visual and verbal eloquence, Dr Seuss forces the the adult, Grinch-looking creature to confront his stubborn prejudice against green eggs and ham: the character is presented with a series of challenging questions designed to expose the absence of any foundation for his bias.

The adult remains stubborn in his intolerance until his much younger counterpart convinces him that there’s no more basis for his distaste for green eggs and ham than the dislike he’s taken to Sam-I-Am. 

The 650 million children who have read Dr Seuss’ books have been exposed to new ways of viewing the world, of rethinking a social order often imbued in prejudice. But adults continue to use the themes of One Fish Two Fish Red Fish Blue Fish. It has inspired a CEO’s leadership manual, a Barnes & Noble e-readerand the name of a dating website. The book was quoted by Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan in a dissenting opinion earlier this year. 

In 1994, Johnny Valentine and Melody Sarecky even applied it to promote same-sex marriage in their children’s book One Dad, Two Dads, Brown Dad, Blue Dads

An original sketch from What Pet Should I Get? discovered in Dr Seuss’ home office in La Jolla, California. Dr Seuss Enterprises

The pet shop that provides the setting for What Pet Should I Get? is inhabited by creatures that display striking resemblances to Horton, the Whos and the Sneetches, along with Sam-I-Am and the fish protagonists of One Fish Two Fish Red Fish Blue Fish. An offshoot of the social vision informing these narratives, What Pet Should I Get? won’t disappoint Dr. Seuss’ readers in the way the Atticus Finch disappointed some To Kill a Mockingbird fans

As older readers relive their response to a universal question nearly all children face, What Pet Should I Get? will allow a new generation of readers to discover why Dr Seuss remains forever relevant.

Donald E Pease is a Professor of English, Dartmouth College

THIS ARTICLE WAS ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED ON THE CONVERSATION

Escalations in Violence in Hong Kong Could Prove Perilous to Human Rights

“A protestor wearing a Guy Fawkes mask in October 2019.” Honcques Laus. CC0.

Demonstrators have seemed to reach a stalemate against the government of Hong Kong, which refuses to accede to the demands of the protesters. Given the rapid escalations in violence and the willingness of the police to employ excessive force, a stalemate could have serious consequences for the state of human rights in Hong Kong.

Protests in Hong Kong began in late April 2019, in reaction to the raising of an extradition bill, which would have permitted the extradition of citizens of Hong Kong to mainland China. Pro-democracy protesters see the extradition bill as a significant acquiescence of Hong Konger’s sovereignty to mainland China, as Hong Kong remains a territory not technically under the direct purview of the Chinese government. The specific worry is that Beijing would use the extradition bill to suppress the growing pro-democracy sentiment among younger generations of Hong-Kongers by demanding that Hong Kong hand over its activists and successful con-China politicians. They represent a movement that has been developing since the late 1990s, focused on maintaining Hong Kong’s distance in relation to the Central People’s Republic in Beijing, with the eventual aim of bringing fully-democratic elections to Hong Kong. 

Presently, the citizens of Hong Kong are allowed free speech and rights to free assembly and association, as outlined in the Basic Law. The government and election structure of Hong Kong is quasi-representative. There are 1,200 electors who ostensibly select officials: representatives of various economic sectors, business interests, and the affluent of Hong Kong. However, the central mainland government exercises a great deal of control over the political proceedings of Hong Kong; the incumbent Chief Executive Carrie Lam was openly favored by China’s President, Xi Jinping. While the extradition bill was removed from the table following the outbreak of protests, the potential for democracy in Hong Kong seems to hang in the balance, as demonstrated in Executive Lam’s unwillingness to accede to the demands of the protesters, and in Beijing’s continued support for Lam. 

The protestors have issued a list of demands beyond the reneging of the proposed extradition bill, repealed in September, that includes investigation into police actions as well as amnesty for protesters in custody, complete universal suffrage, and Lam’s withdrawal from her post as Chief Executive of Hong Kong. The government of Hong Kong has issued a hardline stance, supported explicitly by Xi Jinping and the Central People’s Republic. In her refusal to acquiesce to demands, Lam pushes the protests in Hong Kong towards a path of greater uncertainty; given the perseverance demonstrated by the protesters, it seems that the situation will only continue to escalate. 

Consequently, the first weeks of November have seen significant escalations in the protests in Hong Kong: on November 7th, a university student died after he fell from the top of a parking deck during a skirmish with the police. Monday November 11th saw major instances of violence, in which a police officer shot a protester at close range, and a pro-China counter-protester was set on fire by a group of demonstrators. Protesters and police alike have exhibited violent tactics since the inception of the protests. Police have not shied away from tear gas and rubber bullets, as well as employing excessive physical force towards protesters and members of the press. Demonstrators have also used tactics such as vandalism and violence against those believed to be pro-China. 

However, equating police violence with the actions of the protesters carries dangerous human rights implications; the police act from a privileged position because of the backing they receive from both the government of Hong Kong as well as that of mainland China. The protesters have only the solidarity they experience among one another. Violence by protesters is the impetus of an individual working in conjunction with other individuals; excessive force against protesters by the police is a hit by the state in its entirety. 

In this way, escalating patterns of police violence prove pernicious, because they undermine the human rights of Hong Kongers, and breed complications for a hypothetical future peace process. Instances of excessive violence towards the press prove especially destabilizing, because the suppression of information perpetuates the murkiness that allows the police to continue to carry out extreme, and in many cases illegal acts of retribution against demonstrators. As it stands, the violence in Hong Kong will only continue its escalation should the government of Hong Kong maintain its staunch refusal of concessions. A stalemate could have alarming consequences for the state of human rights in Hong Kong, as the police have already turned to violent tactics involving excessive uses of force, and the demonstrators have, in turn, only increased their fervor in furthering their demands.

HALLIE GRIFFITHS is an undergraduate at the University of Virginia studying Foreign Affairs and Spanish. After graduation, she hopes to apply her passion for travel and social action toward a career in intelligence and policy analysis. Outside of the classroom, she can be found, quite literally, outside: backpacking, rock climbing, or skiing with her friends.