A New Dawn for Syrian Refugees

The fall of Assad’s regime has left the world wondering about the future of Syrian refugees abroad who plan to return home.

Man and daughter at Syrian refugee camp. Ahmed Akacha. CC0.

The Syrian Refugee Crisis is one of the largest humanitarian crises in history and the largest refugee crisis to date, with over 14 million people both internally and externally displaced. Over six million Syrians fled the country following the civil war that broke out in 2011; the majority of refugees currently live in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and Germany. 

President Bashar al-Assad’s violent suppression of pro-democracy protests in 2011 provoked civil conflict, leading to the creation of oppositional militias and rebel groups that began to fight back by 2012. On Dec. 8, 2024, the civil war came to a head when rebel groups seized the Syrian capital, Damascus, forcing Assad to flee to Russia. Assad’s family had ruled Syria under a strict police regime since the 1960s, leading to widespread celebration across the capital as political prisoners were freed. 

Despite rebel groups declaring the country free from the autocratic regime, considerable uncertainty remains about the future of the government and Syria’s stability. Some states have expressed a concern that toppling the government may make the country vulnerable to ISIS, whereas others have noted the encroachment of Israeli forces into Syrian buffer zones. The European Union issued a statement claiming that the conditions in Syria have not yet met the conditions for the safe return of refugees, as thousands have continued to flee following the rebel takeover. However, in the days following, videos swept across social media and news outlets featuring thousands of refugees returning home from Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon.

European countries hosting hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, including Germany and Austria, have jumped at the opportunity to tighten their asylum regulations. In December 2024, both Germany and Austria paused asylum applications, and Austria announced that they would issue a “return bonus” to Syrians who decided to return to Syria. 

Providing incentives or forcing refugees to leave the country could adversely affect host countries, particularly Germany. Approximately two-thirds of employed Syrian refugees in Germany work in critical sectors of the labor force, including healthcare, transportation and food services. Whether forced or voluntary, any kind of mass exodus could negatively affect Germany’s economy by disrupting these industries and causing labor shortages. 

Following an outcry from far-right German politicians to close the country’s borders and begin the expulsion of non-naturalized Syrians, current Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Syrians who are “well-integrated remain welcome in Germany.” However, the Chancellor’s statement may prove unstable, presenting no active policy arrangements if the far-right parties gain control in the upcoming elections and creating further uncertainty for Syrians currently living in Germany. 

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees advised that countries housing refugees should not forcibly deport them, as Syria is not yet deemed politically stable, and it is estimated that over one million Syrians will return to Syria of their own accord in the first few months of 2025. 

Despite this monumental step forward, considerable humanitarian and governmental uncertainty remains surrounding the future of Syrians worldwide, a resolution that may take years to completely unfold. 

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Zoe Lodge is a student at the University of California, Berkeley, where she is studying English and Politics, Philosophy, & Law. She combines her passion for writing with her love for travel, interest in combatting climate change, and concern for social justice issues.